2012 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims
Released On 4/5/2012 8:30:00 AM For wk3/31, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level359 K363 K360 K347 K to 455 K357 K
4-week Moving Average - Level365.00 K366.00 K361.75 K
New Claims - Change-5 K-1 K-6 K

Highlights
Layoffs continue to decrease in what is a strong signal of underlying payroll growth and a signal that the unemployment rate is continuing to come down. Initial jobless claims total 357,000 in the March 31 week, down 6,000 vs a revised 363,000 in the prior week. The four-week average is down a sizable 4,250 to 361,750. The latest week's level and the level for the four-week average are both recovery lows.

The level of continuing claims, at 3.338 million, down 16,000 in data for the March 24 week, is also at a recovery low as is the four-week average of 3.367 million which is down 25,000 in the week. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged in the week at 2.6 percent which is also a recovery low.

There are no special factors in the data which, again, clearly point to improvement in the jobs market. Today's results should help bolster confidence for strong results in Friday's jobs report and should help limit pressure this morning from new concerns in Europe.

Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims in the March 24 week fell 5,000 to 359,000 from a revised 364,000 in the prior week. The four-week average was down 3,500 to 365,000 from the prior week which was revised to 368,500 from 355,000. These levels are recovery lows. The latest numbers include annual revisions (primarily updated seasonal adjustments). The Labor Department noted nothing unusual in the data.

Definition
New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

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