2012 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 10/25/2012 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2012
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change-13.2 %-13.1 %7.0 %3.5 % to 12.1 %9.9 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change-6.7 %2.5 %
Ex-transportation - M/M-1.6 %-2.1 %1.0 %0.1 % to 2.0 %2.0 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr-1.7 %-1.6 %

Highlights
Today's lesson in economics is that durables orders are volatile-no, actually really volatile. And manufacturing still appears to be on a soft trend after sorting through the detail. New factory orders for durables rebounded a monthly 9.9 percent in September after a sharp 13.1 percent plunge in August (originally down 13.2 percent monthly). The market consensus was for a 7.0 percent boost. The comeback was largely due to aircraft orders within the transportation component-where weakness was in August. Excluding transportation, orders rose 2.0 percent after decreasing 2.1 percent in August (originally down 1.6 percent). Analysts projected a 1.0 percent rise in September orders excluding transportation.

Civilian aircraft (Boeing) has really jerked around the total and especially the transportation component. The transportation component rebounded a monthly 31.7 percent after a 33.7 percent plummet in August. Next, civilian aircraft orders were "extremely" low in August due to cancellations, setting up an extremely low baseline for September. Now, the punch line-civilian aircraft orders surged a monthly 2,640.7 percent (that is not a typo). But the issue was an extraordinarily low baseline for August.

For other subcomponents in transportation, motor vehicles slipped 0.4 percent after falling 11.6 percent in August. Defense aircraft jumped 27.2 percent in September, following a 1.4 percent dip the prior month.

Outside of transportation, new orders were mixed. Gains were seen in primary metals, machinery, and "other." Declines were seen in fabricated metals, computers & electronics, and electrical equipment.

Business investment is looking flat outside of aircraft. Orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft were unchanged in September, following a 0.2 percent rise in August and a 5.6 percent drop in July. The equipment investment component in GDP for the third quarter is not looking good. Shipments for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft slipped 0.3 percent in September, following a 1.2 percent decrease the prior month.

Today's numbers topped estimates for the headline and ex-transportation. But when smoothing the volatility, manufacturing is still very soft.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Durable goods orders plunged a whopping 13.2 percent (monthly) in August after a revised 3.3 percent boost in July. Excluding transportation, orders dipped 1.6 percent, following a 1.4 percent rise in July. The transportation component fell 34.9 percent after a 13.2 percent gain in July. Weakness was broad based outside of transportation with declines seen in all major industries except one. Electrical equipment rebounded in August. Numbers reflect revisions from the more recent total factory orders report.

Definition
Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/262/283/284/255/246/277/268/249/2710/2511/2712/21
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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