2012 Economic Calendar
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GDP
Released On 10/26/2012 8:30:00 AM For Q3a:2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Real GDP - Q/Q change - SAAR1.3 %1.9 %1.0 % to 3.9 %2.0 %
GDP price index - Q/Q change - SAAR1.6 %2.0 %1.4 % to 2.7 %2.8 %

Highlights
At 2.0 percent, growth in third-quarter GDP came in fractionally higher than expected and well above second-quarter growth of 1.3 percent. Still, 2.0 percent isn't gangbusters.

But the quarter is led by final demand which is a positive indication for momentum going into the fourth quarter. Final sales of domestic product rose 2.1 percent which marks an acceleration from 1.7 percent in the second quarter. An alternate reading that excludes net exports is even stronger with final sales to domestic producers up 2.3 percent vs the prior quarter's 1.4 percent.

Personal consumption picked up in the quarter, led by consumer buying of durable goods which hints at consumer optimism to make large purchases. Business spending was flat.

A surprise positive in the quarter is a strong contribution from government spending led by Federal spending and specifically defense spending. Exports, as indicated by the special strength in the final sales reading that excludes exports, was a drag on the quarter and reflects weakness in global markets that's centered in Europe and includes Asia.

Inflation hawks have something to read in this report with the GDP price index, at 2.8 percent, coming in above high-end expectations. But when excluding food and energy, pressure slows to 1.3 percent from the second quarter's 1.7 percent.

There's not much reaction in the markets to today's report which does not improve the outlook for employment growth. Still, there are some positives in this report which underscore the economy's resilience and specifically the consumer's resilience.

Recent History Of This Indicator
GDP growth was unexpectedly revised down for the second quarter. The Commerce Department estimated growth at a mere 1.3 percent annualized pace, compared to the second estimate of 1.7 percent and advance estimate of 1.5 percent. The latest number was sharply slower than the 2.0 percent seen in the first quarter and especially the 4.1 percent boost posted for the fourth quarter of last year.

Definition
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/272/293/294/275/316/287/278/299/2710/2611/2912/20
Release For: Q4a:Q4p:Q4f:Q1a:Q1p:Q1f:Q2a:Q2p:Q2f:Q3a:Q3p:Q3f:
 
A: Advance P: Preliminary F: Final


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