2012 Economic Calendar
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Empire State Mfg Survey
Released On 12/17/2012 8:30:00 AM For Dec, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level-5.22 0.0 -7.0  to 8.5 -8.10 

Highlights
The manufacturing sector in the area of New York state has been contracting steadily since August. The general business conditions index of the Empire State report fell to minus 8.10 for the December reading vs minus 5.22 and minus 6.16 in the prior two months. This report has shown no effect from the landfall of Hurricane Sandy or the aftermath. The report for December is filled with negatives that include contraction for new orders, unfilled orders, and employment. The 12-month outlook is still positive but is far from robust.

Last week's PMI flash report, which is a national report, got out ahead of the regional reports this month. The flash report was very strong and contrasts with the continued weakness in this report, which of course is confined to only one area of the country. On Thursday, the regional manufacturing report from the Philly area will be posted and it, like the Empire State report, has been much weaker than national reports.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Empire State manufacturing index was little affected by Hurricane Sandy but the index in November nonetheless remained in contraction mode, posting at minus 5.22 versus minus 6.16 in October. But key details showed improvement, especially shipments which surged to a very strong 14.59 and new orders which at 3.08 showed their first monthly increase since June. But there were also negatives in the report, including a big contraction for employment at minus 14.61.

Definition
The New York Fed conducts this monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State. Participants from across the state represent a variety of industries. On the first of each month, the same pool of roughly 175 manufacturing executives (usually the CEO or the president) is sent a questionnaire to report the change in an assortment of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also give their views about the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey has a much shorter history than the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey. The two series tend to move in tandem much of the time, although not each and every month. They are both considered leading indicators for the ISM manufacturing survey.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/172/153/154/165/156/157/168/159/1710/1511/1512/17
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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