Econoday Economic Report: Consumer Confidence January 31, 2012

2012 Economic Calendar

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Consumer Confidence

Released On 1/31/2012 10:00:00 AM For Jan, 2012

	Prior	Prior Revised	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
Consumer Confidence - Level	64.5	61.5	68.0	59.0 to 65.5	61.1

Highlights
Weakness in the assessment of current conditions -- likely reflecting rising gas prices and perhaps a more difficult jobs market -- pulled down consumer confidence this month to 61.1 from December's revised 64.8. The report's present situation component fell more than 8 points to 38.4 in what nearly erases December's strong showing. Weakness here is centered unfortunately in the jobs market where 43.5 percent say jobs are hard to get. This is not a good indication for Friday's employment report and compares with the recovery low of 41.6 percent in December.

The expectations component also slipped but just barely, to 76.2 vs 77.0. The job readings on the expectations side showing rising optimism that contrasts with the current assessment of the jobs market. This suggests that consumers think current troubles will be temporary. Still, consumers see their income power falling in the months ahead which is a negative for the consumer spending outlook.

Gas prices likely have much to do with income expectations and they certainly affect inflation expectations which are up 2 tenths this month to plus 5.5 percent for the one-year outlook. This report hints at trouble for January suggesting the month may prove to be a weak one in what is otherwise a rising trend for the economy. The Dow is moving further off opening highs following this report.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Conference Board's consumer confidence index in December posted a solid 9.3 point rise to 64.5 for the best reading in eight months. The consumer view of the jobs situation clearly is improving, although slowly. Those saying jobs are currently hard to get were down to 41.8 percent from 43.0 percent in November for the lowest level of the recovery. And for the first time since April, there were more optimists, 17.1 percent, than pessimists, 14.4 percent, when it comes to their own income outlook.

Definition
The Conference Board compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on the economy. The headline Consumer Confidence Index is based on consumers' perceptions of current business and employment conditions, as well as their expectations for six months hence regarding business conditions, employment, and income. Three thousand households across the country are surveyed each month. In general, while the level of consumer confidence is associated with consumer spending, the two do not move in tandem each and every month. Why Investors Care

Typically retail sales will move in tandem with consumer optimism - although not necessarily each and every month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/31 2/28 3/27 4/24 5/29 6/26 7/31 8/28 9/25 11/1 11/27 12/27

Release For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

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Actual Data Source: Haver Analytics