Highlights
Slowing at a still high rate of expansion is the call on overall business conditions in the Chicago area. The Chicago composite index eased 2 points this month to 60.2 (prior revised), well over 50 to indicate strong growth in year-on-year business activity though slightly below December to indicate a slightly slower rate of growth. The new orders index is the most important component and it tells the same story, at 63.6 this month vs December's 67.1. In the report's biggest sign of trouble, the level of backlogs is down 9 points, to a sub-50 level of 48.3 to indicate a monthly draw.

The report's sample, which in distinction to regional manufacturing reports is drawn from all areas of the economy, also reports the lowest rate of employment expansion in five months which is not a positive indication for Friday's employment report. But other readings point to strength including a steady and strong rate of production, a steady rate of input price pressure, and further slowing in deliveries which points to congestion in the supply chain.

This report has been uniformly and strongly positive this recovery, but not this month. Today's report hints at the risk of slowing for both of this week's ISM reports. The Dow is down from opening highs.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Chicago PMI for December was little changed at a very strong 62.5 versus 65.2 the month before. Strength was led by the new orders index which posted at a healthy 68.0 compared to 70.2 the prior month.

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/31 2/29 3/30 4/30 5/31 6/29 7/31 8/31 9/28 10/31 11/30 12/28 Release For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec