Highlights
Chicago businesses are reporting the slowest growth of the recovery with the MNI Chicago index at 52.7 which falls well short of Econoday's consensus for 56.1. The index is suddenly at its lowest point since September 2009. New orders, at 52.9, also shows the slowest monthly growth since September 2009 while production, coming in right at 50, shows no monthly change at all which is also the weakest reading since September 2009. Backlogs, at 46.3, show only their third contraction going back to January 2010. Price pressures for raw materials, despite the decline in oil, remain elevated. One positive is continuing solid growth for employment.

Throughout the recovery this report has been posting strong rates of growth, and the slowdown here points at the risk of monthly slowing and even contraction for an increasing number of other regional surveys (the Philly Fed already reports contraction while negatives are appearing in the Dallas report). Tomorrow Markit Economics and the ISM will post their national manufacturing surveys with last week's flash reading from Markit Economics pointing to significant slowing.

Market Consensus before announcement
The Chicago PMI slowed to 56.2 in April from 62.2 the month before. While disappointing, the index remained well above 50 to indicate growth compared to March. While disappointing, the April index (being above the 50 level) still reflects a moderately positive growth rate.
Growth in new orders and growth in production both slowed but with readings in the 57 area both remained very strong. Especially strong in April were backlog orders which, nearly at 57, showed the strongest monthly build so far this year. Employment was also strong, up nearly 1-1/2 points to nearly 59.

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/31 2/29 3/30 4/30 5/31 6/29 7/31 8/31 9/28 10/31 11/30 12/28 Release For: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec