2012 Economic Calendar
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S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI  
Released On 2/28/2012 9:00:00 AM For Dec, 2011
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
20-city, SA - M/M-0.7 %-0.4 %-0.4 %-0.6 % to 0.0 %-0.5 %
20-city, NSA - M/M-1.3 %-1.3 %-0.7 %-0.9 % to -0.1 %-1.1 %
20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr-3.7 %-3.8 %-3.7 %-4.1 % to -3.0 %-4.0 %

Home prices are falling, indicated by weakness in preliminary January data from the existing home sales report and confirmed today by S&P Case-Shiller data for December that show a very steep 0.5 percent adjusted monthly decline for the 20-city index. The year-on-year rate ended 2012 with a minus 4.0 percent showing, two tenths steeper than the rate in November and the worst reading since, as the report says, the housing crisis began in mid-2006.

Unadjusted readings for the 20-city index, which are closely watched in this report, tell the same story with the year-on-year rate also down 4.0 percent and with the monthly rate down 1.1 percent (note that adjusted data, where the monthly decline is about half the unadjusted rate, compensate for cold weather effects on activity). A look across individual cities shows 12 of the 20 cities with adjusted monthly declines and some quite severe including Detroit at a monthly minus 3.5 percent, Atlanta at minus 1.3 percent, and Chicago at minus 1.1 percent.

Supply has been coming down in the housing sector which should help prices, though readings on supply in the existing home sales report are hard to gauge given uncertainty over hidden inventories of foreclosed properties. Lower prices are, of course, a negative for homeowners but on the positive side they will stimulate sales. Next data on the housing sector will be tomorrow's purchase index of mortgage applications, a reading that unfortunately has been trending lower.

Consensus Outlook
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) in November fell 0.7 percent, declining for the sixth straight month. The year-on-year rate of contraction for the composite-20 deepened slightly to minus 3.7 percent from minus 3.4 percent (NSA).

The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home re-sales. The expanded 20-city measure is the key series. The original series (still available) covered 10 cities. A national index is published quarterly. The indexes are based on single-family dwellings with two or more sales transactions. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published monthly on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 AM ET. The latest data are reported with a two-month lag. For example data released in January 2016 are for November. Note that S&P, citing large seasonal swings in the housing sector and the risk of adjustment inaccuracies, urges readers to track unadjusted data in this report.  Why Investors Care
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is based on repeat transactions. That is, appreciation or depreciation is for same houses resold. This index is probably the best measure of changes in home prices. While it covers the gamut of types of houses sold, it is limited to metropolitan areas.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/312/283/274/245/296/267/318/289/2510/3011/2712/26
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct

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