2012 Economic Calendar
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S&P Case-Shiller HPI
Released On 2/28/2012 9:00:00 AM For Dec, 2011
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
20-city, SA - M/M-0.7 %-0.4 %-0.4 %-0.6 % to 0.0 %-0.5 %
20-city, NSA - M/M-1.3 %-1.3 %-0.7 %-0.9 % to -0.1 %-1.1 %
20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr-3.7 %-3.8 %-3.7 %-4.1 % to -3.0 %-4.0 %

Highlights
Home prices are falling, indicated by weakness in preliminary January data from the existing home sales report and confirmed today by S&P Case-Shiller data for December that show a very steep 0.5 percent adjusted monthly decline for the 20-city index. The year-on-year rate ended 2012 with a minus 4.0 percent showing, two tenths steeper than the rate in November and the worst reading since, as the report says, the housing crisis began in mid-2006.

Unadjusted readings for the 20-city index, which are closely watched in this report, tell the same story with the year-on-year rate also down 4.0 percent and with the monthly rate down 1.1 percent (note that adjusted data, where the monthly decline is about half the unadjusted rate, compensate for cold weather effects on activity). A look across individual cities shows 12 of the 20 cities with adjusted monthly declines and some quite severe including Detroit at a monthly minus 3.5 percent, Atlanta at minus 1.3 percent, and Chicago at minus 1.1 percent.

Supply has been coming down in the housing sector which should help prices, though readings on supply in the existing home sales report are hard to gauge given uncertainty over hidden inventories of foreclosed properties. Lower prices are, of course, a negative for homeowners but on the positive side they will stimulate sales. Next data on the housing sector will be tomorrow's purchase index of mortgage applications, a reading that unfortunately has been trending lower.

Market Consensus before announcement
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) in November fell 0.7 percent, declining for the sixth straight month. The year-on-year rate of contraction for the composite-20 deepened slightly to minus 3.7 percent from minus 3.4 percent (NSA).

Definition
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. The composite indexes and the regional indexes are seen by the markets as measuring changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home re-sales. The key composite series tracked are for the expanded 20-city composite indexes. The original series (still available) covered 10 cities. A national index is published quarterly. The indexes are based on single-family dwellings with two or more sales transactions. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. The data are compiled for S&P by Fiserv, Inc. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published monthly on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 AM ET. The latest data are reported with a two-month lag. For example data released in January 2008 were for November 2007.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is based on repeat transactions. That is, appreciation or depreciation is for same houses resold. This index is probably the best measure of changes in home prices. While it covers the gamut of types of houses sold, it is limited to metropolitan areas.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2012 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/312/283/274/245/296/267/318/289/2510/3011/2712/26
Release For: NovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct
 


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