Econoday Economic Report: S&P Case-Shiller HPI July 31, 2012

2012 Economic Calendar

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S&P Case-Shiller HPI

Released On 7/31/2012 9:00:00 AM For May, 2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
20-city, SA - M/M	0.7 %	0.5 %	0.0 % to 0.8 %	0.9 %
20-city, NSA - M/M	1.3 %	1.2 %	1.0 % to 1.5 %	2.2 %
20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr	-1.9 %	-1.4 %	-2.6 % to -0.8 %	-0.7 %

Highlights
Home prices firmed very strongly in May according to S&P Case-Shiller which shows an adjusted 0.9 percent gain. This is the third strong gain in a row following 0.7 and 0.8 percent readings in April and March. Yet prices are coming off the bottom reflected in the year-on-year rate which is still in the negative column at minus 0.7 percent. Yet the direction is going the right way with 18 of 20 cities showing monthly growth led by Chicago and Atlanta which are two cities where home prices had been especially weak.

Unadjusted data are watched in this report and tell the same story of improvement. Lost equity in home prices has been a major hardship of the last five years. Improvement, if extended, should help consumer confidence and consumer spending. Watch for the Fed's assessment of the housing market in tomorrow's FOMC statement.

Market Consensus before announcement
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) in April surged 0.7 percent. This was an unusually large gain, last exceeded in April 2010 and before that in August 2009. Importantly, April's gain was also the third in a row which is the longest streak since early 2010. Unadjusted data, which are followed in this report, likewise showed strength with a 1.3 percent monthly gain. The year-on-year rate posted at minus 1.9 percent.

Definition
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. The composite indexes and the regional indexes are seen by the markets as measuring changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home re-sales. The key composite series tracked are for the expanded 20-city composite indexes. The original series (still available) covered 10 cities. A national index is published quarterly. The indexes are based on single-family dwellings with two or more sales transactions. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. The data are compiled for S&P by Fiserv, Inc. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published monthly on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 AM ET. The latest data are reported with a two-month lag. For example data released in January 2008 were for November 2007. Why Investors Care

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is based on repeat transactions. That is, appreciation or depreciation is for same houses resold. This index is probably the best measure of changes in home prices. While it covers the gamut of types of houses sold, it is limited to metropolitan areas.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/31 2/28 3/27 4/24 5/29 6/26 7/31 8/28 9/25 10/30 11/27 12/26

Release For: Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

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Actual Data Source: Haver Analytics