Econoday Economic Report: S&P Case-Shiller HPI August 28, 2012

2012 Economic Calendar

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S&P Case-Shiller HPI

Released On 8/28/2012 9:00:00 AM For Jun, 2012

	Prior	Consensus	Consensus Range	Actual
20-city, SA - M/M	0.9 %	0.4 %	0.2 % to 1.0 %	0.9 %
20-city, NSA - M/M	2.2 %	1.4 %	0.9 % to 1.5 %	2.3 %
20-city, NSA - Yr/Yr	-0.7 %	0.0 %	-1.5 % to 1.0 %	0.5 %

Highlights
Home prices are clearly on the recovery with Case-Shiller reporting a 0.9 percent rise for its 20-city index. This is the fifth rise in a row and the fourth very strong rise in a row. The year-on-year rate, at plus 0.5 percent, shows its first positive reading in nearly 2 years. Gains sweep 18 of the 20 cities led by a sharp rebound for Detroit and a third straight monthly rebound for Atlanta. West Coast cities also show strong gains.

Unadjusted data, which are actively tracked in this report, show an even stronger monthly gain at 2.3 percent. The higher rate for the unadjusted reading is no surprise as summer is a strong period for home sales. The year-on-year unadjusted rate is the same as the adjusted rate and, like the adjusted rate, shows its first gain in nearly 2 years.

The housing sector may be finally gaining traction as lower supply is helping to boost prices. This report should be a positive for today's stock market.

Market Consensus before announcement
The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index (SA) firmed notably in May which showed an adjusted 0.9 percent gain. This was the third strong gain in a row following 0.7 and 0.8 percent readings in April and March and also a modest uptick in February. Prices came off the bottom, reflected in the year-on-year rate which is still in the negative column at minus 0.7 percent.

Definition
The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the U.S. The composite indexes and the regional indexes are seen by the markets as measuring changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home re-sales. The key composite series tracked are for the expanded 20-city composite indexes. The original series (still available) covered 10 cities. A national index is published quarterly. The indexes are based on single-family dwellings with two or more sales transactions. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. The data are compiled for S&P by Fiserv, Inc. The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are published monthly on the last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 AM ET. The latest data are reported with a two-month lag. For example data released in January 2008 were for November 2007. Why Investors Care

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index is based on repeat transactions. That is, appreciation or depreciation is for same houses resold. This index is probably the best measure of changes in home prices. While it covers the gamut of types of houses sold, it is limited to metropolitan areas.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2012 Release Schedule

Released On: 1/31 2/28 3/27 4/24 5/29 6/26 7/31 8/28 9/25 10/30 11/27 12/26

Release For: Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

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Actual Data Source: Haver Analytics