2013 Economic Calendar
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U.S. & Intl Recaps   |   Event Definitions   |   Today's Calendar

Retail Sales
Released On 11/20/2013 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2013
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change-0.1 %0.0 %0.0 %-0.3 % to 0.4 %0.4 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change0.4 %0.3 %0.1 %-0.1 % to 0.3 %0.2 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.4 %0.3 %0.3 %0.0 % to 0.5 %0.3 %

Highlights
Retail sales in October were moderately healthy with more components positive than not. Overall retail sales gained 0.4 percent after no change in September. Market expectations were for a flat October.

Autos helped, increasing 1.3 percent after a decline of 1.2 percent in September. Excluding autos, sales advanced 0.2 percent in October after rising 0.3 percent in September. But gasoline prices weighed down. Gas station sales slipped 0.6 percent in October, following a 0.2 percent increase the month before. Excluding both autos and gasoline, sales increased 0.3 percent, matching the pace in September.

In the core, strength was seen in electronics & appliance stores; sporting goods, hobby, etc.; furniture & home furnishings, clothing; and food services & drinking places. Declines were seen in building materials & garden equipment and miscellaneous store retailers.

Overall, the consumer is feeling more able to spend despite being in a bad mood in terms of sentiment. The numbers are not outstanding but they are moderately good-a favorable sign for continued recovery.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Retail sales in September were not good at the headline level but were positive at the core level. Retail sales slipped 0.1 percent in September, following a 0.2 percent rise in August. As expected (from unit new auto sales) autos fell 2.2 percent after a 0.7 percent rebound in August. Retail sales excluding autos gained 0.4 percent after nudging up 0.1 percent in August. Gasoline sales were unchanged in September, following a 0.3 percent decline the month before. Excluding both autos and gasoline components, sales gained 0.4 percent, following a 0.1 percent rise in August. Core sales showed broad based gains.

Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 

2013 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/152/133/134/125/136/137/158/139/1310/2911/2012/12
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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