2014 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 9/25/2014 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2014
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change22.6 %22.5 %-17.1 %-20.0 % to 3.5 %-18.2 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change33.8 %33.7 %8.9 %
Ex-transportation - M/M-0.8 %-0.5 %0.8 %0.2 % to 2.0 %0.7 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr6.6 %6.8 %7.3 %

Highlights
Durables orders fell back in August, coming off July's surge in aircraft orders. But the core was healthy in August. New factory orders for durables dropped a monthly 18.2 percent, following a spike of 22.5 percent in July. Market expectations were for a 17.1 percent fall. Transportation fell a monthly 42.0 percent in August, following a 73.3 percent jump the month before.

Excluding transportation, durables orders rebounded 0.7 percent, following a decline of 0.5 percent in July. Analysts projected a 0.8 percent gain for August.

Within transportation, nondefense aircraft fell a monthly 74.3 percent, following a 315.6 percent spike in July with both swings essentially reflecting Boeing aircraft orders. Defense aircraft orders slipped 0.6 percent, following a 31.7 percent drop in July. Motor vehicle orders have been moderately volatile but healthy on average, decreasing 6.4 percent after a 10.0 percent boost the prior month.

Outside of transportation, major industries seeing a gain in the latest month were fabricated metals, machinery, computers & electronics, electrical equipment, and "other." Declines were posted for primary metals.

Orders for equipment investment made a healthy comeback in August. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rebounded 0.6 percent in August, following a dip of 0.2 percent the month before. Shipments of this series edged up 0.1 percent but followed a strong 1.9 percent gain in July.

Recent durables orders have shown record volatility. On average, durables orders point to moderate upward momentum in manufacturing.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders soared in July due to aircraft orders but otherwise came off a moderately strong core number in June. New factory orders for durables soared a monthly 22.6 percent in July, following a 2.7 percent boost in June. Excluding transportation, durables orders slipped 0.7 percent, following a 3.0 boost in June. Transportation spiked a monthly 74.1 percent after rising 2.2 percent in June. Nondefense aircraft (Boeing) surged 317.3 percent (that is not a typo) after gaining 11.2 percent in June. Another but more moderate positive was motor vehicle orders which gained 7.3 percent, following a 0.9 percent rise in June. Defense aircraft fell 29.1 percent in July, following a rise of 9.5 percent the month before. Outside of transportation, gains were limited.

Definition
Durable goods orders are new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for factory hard goods. The report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. The advance release provides early estimates and is revised about a week later by the factory orders report.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2014 Release Schedule
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