2014 Economic Calendar
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Durable Goods Orders  
Released On 9/25/2014 8:30:00 AM For Aug, 2014
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Orders - M/M change22.6 %22.5 %-17.1 %-20.0 % to 3.5 %-18.2 %
New Orders - Yr/Yr Change33.8 %33.7 %8.9 %
Ex-transportation - M/M-0.8 %-0.5 %0.8 %0.2 % to 2.0 %0.7 %
Ex-transportation - Yr/Yr6.6 %6.8 %7.3 %

Durables orders fell back in August, coming off July's surge in aircraft orders. But the core was healthy in August. New factory orders for durables dropped a monthly 18.2 percent, following a spike of 22.5 percent in July. Market expectations were for a 17.1 percent fall. Transportation fell a monthly 42.0 percent in August, following a 73.3 percent jump the month before.

Excluding transportation, durables orders rebounded 0.7 percent, following a decline of 0.5 percent in July. Analysts projected a 0.8 percent gain for August.

Within transportation, nondefense aircraft fell a monthly 74.3 percent, following a 315.6 percent spike in July with both swings essentially reflecting Boeing aircraft orders. Defense aircraft orders slipped 0.6 percent, following a 31.7 percent drop in July. Motor vehicle orders have been moderately volatile but healthy on average, decreasing 6.4 percent after a 10.0 percent boost the prior month.

Outside of transportation, major industries seeing a gain in the latest month were fabricated metals, machinery, computers & electronics, electrical equipment, and "other." Declines were posted for primary metals.

Orders for equipment investment made a healthy comeback in August. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rebounded 0.6 percent in August, following a dip of 0.2 percent the month before. Shipments of this series edged up 0.1 percent but followed a strong 1.9 percent gain in July.

Recent durables orders have shown record volatility. On average, durables orders point to moderate upward momentum in manufacturing.

Consensus Outlook
Durable goods orders soared in July due to aircraft orders but otherwise came off a moderately strong core number in June. New factory orders for durables soared a monthly 22.6 percent in July, following a 2.7 percent boost in June. Excluding transportation, durables orders slipped 0.7 percent, following a 3.0 boost in June. Transportation spiked a monthly 74.1 percent after rising 2.2 percent in June. Nondefense aircraft (Boeing) surged 317.3 percent (that is not a typo) after gaining 11.2 percent in June. Another but more moderate positive was motor vehicle orders which gained 7.3 percent, following a 0.9 percent rise in June. Defense aircraft fell 29.1 percent in July, following a rise of 9.5 percent the month before. Outside of transportation, gains were limited.

Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data.

Durable goods orders are available nationally by both industry and market categories. A new order is accompanied by a legally binding agreement to purchase for immediate or future delivery. Advance durable goods orders no longer include data on semiconductors since semiconductor manufacturers stopped releasing this information to the Census Bureau.

The advance durable goods report also contains information on shipments, unfilled orders and inventories. Shipments represent deliveries made, valued at net selling price after discounts and allowances, excluding freight charges and excise taxes. Unfilled orders are those received but not yet delivered.

In 2001, the Census Bureau shifted from the standard industrial classification (SIC) system to the North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This caused some realignment of major industry classifications. Given the significant revisions incurred, the historical data now begin in 1992.
 Why Investors Care
Monthly fluctuations in durable goods orders are frequent and large and skew the underlying trend in the data. In fact, even the yearly change must be viewed carefully because of the volatility in this series.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2014 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/282/273/264/245/276/257/258/269/2510/2811/2612/23
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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