2017 Economic Calendar
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Employment Situation  
Released On 8/4/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change222,000 231,000 178,000 144,000  to 220,000 209,000 
Unemployment Rate - Level4.4 %4.3 %4.3 % to 4.4 %4.3 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change187,000 194,000 175,000 151,000  to 205,000 205,000 
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change1,000 12,000 3,000 -3,000  to 10,000 16,000 
Participation Rate - level62.8 %62.9 %
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change0.2 %0.3 %0.1 % to 0.4 %0.3 %
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change2.5 %2.5 %2.4 % to 2.6 %2.5 %
Av Workweek - All Employees34.5 hrs34.5 hrs34.4 hrs to 34.5 hrs34.5 hrs

Highlights
The second half of the year opens on a strong note as nonfarm payrolls rose 209,000 in July, far above Econoday's consensus for 178,000. The unemployment rate moved 1 tenth lower to 4.3 percent while the participation rate rose 1 tenth to 62.9 percent, both solid positives. And a very strong positive is a 0.3 percent rise in average hourly earnings though the year-on-year rate, at 2.5 percent, failed to move higher. The workweek held steady at 34.5 hours.

Factory payrolls are coming alive, up 16,000 in July following a 12,000 increase in June. This points to second-half momentum for manufacturing and is a positive wildcard for the economy in general. A similar standout is professional & business services, up 49,000, and within this temporary help services which rose 15,000. Gains here suggest that employers, pressed to find permanent staff, are turning to contractors to keep up with production. Government was a big factor in June, up 37,000, but was quiet in July at a gain of 4,000. Total revisions are a wash with nonfarm payrolls revised 9,000 higher in June and 7,000 lower in May.

Employment has by far been the strongest factor in the economy and the strength in today's report will firm conviction among Federal Reserve policy makers that increasing wage gains, and with this increasing inflation, are more likely to hit sooner than later.

Recent History Of This Indicator
After rising a strong 222,000 in July, nonfarm payroll growth is expected to slow back to trend under 200,000, to a consensus 178,000 in July. The unemployment rate is seen tightening one notch to 4.3 percent and average hourly earnings, which slowed to only 0.2 percent in June, are expected to move back to a 0.3 percent monthly gain. Year-on-year earnings are seen unchanged at 2.5 percent. Other calls are for a 175,000 rise in private payrolls, a modest 3,000 gain for manufacturing payrolls, and no change in the workweek at 34.5 hours.

Definition
The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. The unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed persons divided by the total number of persons in the labor force, which comes from a survey of 60,000 households (this is called the household survey). Workers are only counted once, no matter how many jobs they have, or whether they are only working part-time. In order to be counted as unemployed, one must be actively looking for work. Other commonly known figures from the Household Survey include the labor supply and discouraged workers.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
[Chart]
The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate t
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/62/33/104/75/56/27/78/49/110/611/312/8
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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