2017 Economic Calendar
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Jobless Claims  
Released On 6/22/2017 8:30:00 AM For wk6/17, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
New Claims - Level237 K238 K240 K235 K to 245 K241 K
4-week Moving Average - Level243.00 K243.25 K244.75 K
New Claims - Change-8 K-7 K3 K

Consistent with strong demand for labor, jobless claims are little changed in the latest report. Initial claims came in at 241,000 in the June 17 week which is right at Econoday's consensus for 240,000. The June 17 week was also the sample week for the coming June employment report and a comparison with the sample week of the May employment report shows only a slight increase of 8,000. The 4-week average is up very slightly to a 244,750 level that is only marginally above the 4-week average at mid-May of 241,000.

Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, are likewise little changed, at 1.944 million for an increase of 8,000. This 4-week average is up 5,000 to 1.932 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers (which excludes job leavers and re-entrants) is unchanged at a very low 1.4 percent.

Readings in throughout this report are at historic lows as employers hold onto their employees. There are no special factors in today's report though claims for Louisiana had once again to be estimated.

Consensus Outlook
Jobless claims are very low and pointing to unusually strong demand for labor. Forecasters sees initial claims coming in at 240,000 in the June 17 week vs 237,000 in the prior week. Note that the June 17 week is also the sample week for the monthly employment report which will focus extra attention on the data.

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smooths out weekly volatility.  Why Investors Care
Weekly series fluctuate more dramatically than monthly series even when the series are adjusted for seasonal variation. The 4-week moving average gives a better perspective on the underlying trend.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

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