2017 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales  
Released On 7/14/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change-0.3 %-0.1 %0.1 %0.0 % to 0.4 %-0.2 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change-0.3 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.4 %-0.2 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.0 %0.4 %0.2 % to 0.5 %-0.1 %
Control Group – M/M change0.0 %0.4 %0.2 % to 0.5 %-0.1 %

Consumer spending in second-quarter GDP will not be getting a lift from the retail component as retail sales fell an unexpected 0.2 percent in June. This follows a revised 0.1 percent decline in May and a revised 0.3 percent gain for April which proved to be the quarter's only respectable showing.

Readings show wide weakness with vehicle sales coming in with a marginal 0.1 percent increase, the same for furniture and also electronics & appliances. Declines include food & beverage stores, down a sharp 0.4 percent, and department stores down 0.7 percent following the prior month's 0.8 percent plunge. Restaurants are also weak, down 0.6 percent for the third decline in four months. Gasoline sales fell 1.3 percent reflecting price weakness. Nonstore retailers, which include e-commerce, are a positive in the report with a 0.4 percent gain as are building materials rising 0.5 percent gain.

But there really aren't very many positives in today's report, one that points to a surprising lack of consumer spirit and one that will not be raising estimates for second-quarter GDP.

Consensus Outlook
Retail sales need to rebound in June to help second-quarter consumer spending but the Econoday consensus isn't calling for much strength, at a gain of 0.1 percent vs an outright 0.3 percent decline in May. Unit vehicle sales proved flat in May which is not a positive indication for the autos component of this report which has posted 4 monthly declines so far this year. Ex-auto sales also fell 0.3 percent in May and the call for June is plus 0.2 percent. Two other closely watched readings in this report, ex-autos & ex-gas sales and also control group sales, were both unchanged in May with, however, better strength expected for June, at 0.4 percent for both.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/132/153/154/145/126/147/148/159/1510/1311/1512/14
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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