2017 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales  
Released On 11/15/2017 8:30:00 AM For Oct, 2017
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change1.6 %1.9 %0.1 %-0.5 % to 0.5 %0.2 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change1.0 %1.2 %0.2 %-0.1 % to 0.5 %0.1 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.5 %0.6 %0.4 %0.0 % to 0.5 %0.3 %
Control Group – M/M change0.4 %0.5 %0.3 %0.3 % to 0.4 %0.3 %

Retail sales roughly hit expectations in October, slowing to a 0.2 percent monthly gain following September's revised 1.9 percent hurricane-related surge. Ex-auto sales managed only a 0.1 percent gain though two core readings both show respectable growth, at 0.3 percent each for ex-autos ex-gas and control group sales.

Hurricane effects are evident in autos, slowing sharply to a still very strong 0.7 percent gain from September's 4.6 percent replacement surge. Building materials reversed sharply, down 1.2 percent following a 3.0 percent gain, with gasoline down 1.2 percent vs September's plus 6.4 percent. On the plus side, furniture along with electronics & appliance stores both rose 0.7 percent in October with health & personal care stores up 0.8 percent.

Year-on-year rates did moderate in October but only slightly and remain at respectable levels: total sales are up a yearly 4.6 percent, down 2 tenths in the month, with control group sales at 3.4 percent, also down 2 tenths. Yet the month of October, for retail sales, dims in importance to the holiday months of November and December going into which expectations are very strong for very solid results.

Consensus Outlook
Auto and gasoline sales both spiked on hurricane effects in September which inflated the month's headline gain to 1.6 percent. But core readings were very positive in the month and underscored the fundamental strength of the consumer. Retail sales in October are expected to rise 0.1 percent with ex-auto sales at 0.2 percent. Two core readings -- less auto & gas and control group sales – are both expected to show appreciable gains, at 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent respectively.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/132/153/154/145/126/147/148/159/1510/1311/1512/14
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov

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