2018 Economic Calendar
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Retail Sales  
Released On 7/16/2018 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2018
PriorPrior RevisedConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Retail Sales - M/M change0.8 %1.3 %0.5 %0.3 % to 1.0 %0.5 %
Retail Sales less autos - M/M change0.9 %1.4 %0.4 %0.2 % to 0.5 %0.4 %
Less Autos & Gas - M/M Change0.8 %1.3 %0.5 %0.1 % to 0.6 %0.3 %
Control Group – M/M change0.5 %0.8 %0.4 %0.1 % to 0.5 %0.0 %

Highlights
Strong gains for the discretionary categories of autos and restaurants and a big upward revision to May highlight the June retail sales report. Total sales rose an as-expected 0.5 percent in June with May, in what will be a positive for second-quarter GDP estimates, revised a sharp 5 tenths higher to an outsized 1.3 percent jump.

What's striking is that autos were very strong in both June and May, up 0.9 and 0.8 percent respectively, with restaurants really showing unusual acceleration, up 1.5 and 2.6 percent in the two months. Gains here point to new confidence among consumers and are consistent with the strength underway in the labor market.

Sales at health & personal care stores were unusually strong in June, up 2.2 percent following a series of very strong gains in the 1 percent range. Nonstore retailers, in a sign of e-commerce strength, rose 1.3 percent in June and continue to make ground compared to other components. Gasoline stations, boosted by high gas prices, saw a 1.0 percent rise in June sales following a 3.0 percent spike in May. Building materials, at plus 0.8 percent in June, and furniture store sales, up 0.6 percent, are both positive indications for residential investment.

Consumer spending in May was at first modest overall on weakness in spending on services though today's upward retail revision will offer a major lift for May's final result. And unless services prove flat again, June -- based on today's report -- should prove a very strong finish for the second-quarter economy.

Consensus Outlook
A second month of strength is expected for retail sales with the consensus looking for a solid 0.5 percent headline gain. Two key discretionary categories, vehicles and restaurants, have been on the climb. Auto sales, based on a jump in unit sales, are expected to be a positive in June, making for less strength in the ex-auto consensus, at a 0.4 percent gain. Ex-auto ex-gas sales are seen rising 0.5 percent with control group sales, which also exclude food services and building materials, expected to rise 0.4 percent.

Definition
Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell merchandise and related services to final consumers. Sales are by retail and food services stores. Data are collected from the Monthly Retail Trade Survey conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Essentially, retail sales cover the durables and nondurables portions of consumer spending. Consumer spending typically accounts for about two-thirds of GDP and is therefore a key element in economic growth.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
Nearly 75 percent of the time, changes in monthly retail sales are between +1 percent and -1 percent. However, there are many months in which the monthly change falls outside that range. Most of the time, excessive increases or decreases are due to higher/lower spending on motor vehicle sales. Year-over-year changes in retail sales can be volatile as well, but tend to be smoother than monthly changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2018 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/122/143/144/165/156/147/168/159/1410/1511/1512/14
Release For: DecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNov
 


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